Biden vs Trump 2024: Looks Like 2020 Rematch Biden Moving Forward as Trump Seeks Revenge

Achievements close only on few items

(Biden Experience & Leadership More Than Trump)

Biden vs. Trump on top 4 Key Issues Based on the Facts and Reality here in part from BARRON’S (formatted to fit the blog) with this headline:

“The Trump vs. Biden Economy: A Comparison in 10 Areas”

#1: Inflation: During the Trump era, Americans enjoyed relatively low inflation, following the historically low levels of the Obama years. 

The Consumer Price Index hit a high in June 2018 of only 2.9%. Then CoVID and massive pandemic changed inflation’s trajectory as the supply-chain snarled as government stimulus spending and pent-up demand combined to send prices sharply higher.

The Russia’s attack on Ukraine added further price pressures, particularly in the energy sector. The CPI reached a peak of 9% in June 2022, in the second year of Biden’s term. 

Inflation has since fallen to 3.1% year over year, based on the latest CPI reading. Credit goes largely to the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates 11 times in the past two years, to a targeted range of 5.25% - 5.50%, to cool price growth. 

Still, high costs, particularly for food, have dogged the Biden presidency. Government data show that food costs are up more than 20% from the start of Biden’s term.

#2.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Gross domestic product, which measures economic output, is a fundamental indicator of the economy’s performance. Real GDP, adjusted for inflation, averaged 2.6% during Trump’s first three years in office, a decent performance but below the 4% economic growth he had pledged to deliver. Much of that growth came from tax cuts and spending increases related to CoVID.

From Biden’s inauguration in January 2021 through the end of last year, real GDP grew by an average of about 3.4% a year. Much of the growth in 2021 was due to “automatic recovery mechanisms in the economy” after CoVID-related shutdowns. Still, GDP grew by 2.5% last year, after much of the recovery bounce arguably had dissipated. The New York Federal Reserve estimate for this year’s first quarter stands at 2.8%.

#3. Government Debt:  The Trump and Biden administrations were birds of a feather in one regard: Borrowing and spending.

“They both spent money hand over fist.” Public debt stands at $34.3 trillion today, equal to $101,976 per American.

Biden added $3.8 trillion to the national bill largely through the American Rescue Act, pandemic-era stimulus legislation passed at the start of his presidency and much other spending legislation under Biden has been bipartisan, so his administration shouldn’t shoulder sole responsibility.

Contrast Trump with that under Biden: The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump added $8.4 trillion to the debt, including about $3.8 trillion in 2020 that included stimulus legislation to shore up the U.S. economy.

Trump’s 2017 tax cuts are expected to add $2.2 trillion in debt over a 10-year period. 

Both administrations opted to run the U.S. economy hot and fiscal experts have mostly said: “That probably appeared to work more successfully for Trump, because it didn’t create inflation, but it did create a huge legacy of debt — a legacy that Biden also has, but not to a great extreme as of yet.”

#4. Unemployment: Trump presided over a strong job market: He took office with unemployment at 4.7% and heading to 3.5% in September 2019 — a then-50-year low. The economy added 6.4 million jobs during his term, before the arrival of CoVID.

Biden inherited a labor market beset by pandemic-related chaos. The economy shed 9.3 million jobs in 2020, and unemployment reached 6.4% by the start of 2021.

By January 2023, as the CoVID crisis eased and the economy reopened, unemployment had fallen to 3.4%, the lowest rate in 54 years — and it isn’t much higher today. Plus, the U.S. economy added 14.8 million new jobs from 2021 to 2023, with monthly payroll gains averaging 412,000.

The past seven years have witnessed demographic shifts that will see the U.S. population grow at a slower rate, while the share of Americans over 65 climbs to record levels. Both trends curtail the labor supply, which should keep the unemployment rate low.

#5. Final Areas of Interest and Concern: PERSONAL DEBT; THE BORDER – tied to: NATIONAL SECURITY; and AID TO UKRAINE, ISRAEL & TAIWAN.

THE BORDER: There is a large bi-partisan Senate bill (70-29 vote passed) now pending GOP-run House approval that Speaker “MAGA Moses” Mike Johnson (R-LA) is blocking as a separate matter before anything else, and that my friends makes Putin happy as hell… ergo: the GOP pleases Putin – how ironic is that?

Personal delinquency rates, or the percentage of debt that is past due, averaged 4.7% in Trump’s first three years in office, and 2.8% in Biden’s first three years.

There’s an easy explanation for the difference: Pandemic-era practices and policies proved beneficial to many households’ financial health early in Biden’s term. Not only did people spend less during the CoVID “lockdown”, but Biden’s stimulus payments also boosted savings.

Now as Americans draw down their pandemic savings, delinquency rates are rising again. They topped 3% in the fourth quarter, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But there is no need to panic: Delinquency rates hit 12% at the end of 2009, following that GOP-driven financial crisis and recession that they generated under then-President Obama.

My 2 Cents: The final chapter of Biden’s presidency has yet to be written, but this far, it’s a fine working administration once he gets the border under control that is.

But, based on economic results so far, Mr. Biden has been stellar. He and Trump have plenty to crow about — and some issues to duck, too, but Biden has more in the plus and truth departments.

This upcoming 2024 presidential election is apt to be far worse than 2020 – if Trump does not win – but conversely really bad if Trump were to win – which I think fairly he cannot – but he won’t let another loss go unacted on … it could be and possibly will be worse than January 6 – and, yes, we must take him at his word on this revenge trip as he calls it.

The one element lacking bigly is that Trump is a serial liar and Joe Biden is not. We must take Trump at his word when he says what he will do if reelected – that must never happen.

Thanks for stopping by.